Calculating the probability of a stock market close price range?
（How would one go about calculating the odds that the stock market will close inn a certain range (ie between +25 and +100 points) for example.）
Answer：
Numerous time series forecasting methods exist. One simple way is to take a look at a large number of previous closes(+100, +25,……,etc.), sort them in order from highest to lowest, and the probability of the market closing in a certain range is the relative size of that range in the data list relative to the number of data points. For example if 30 out of 100 of the previus closes were in the range +10 to +50, then the probability a single days change would be in that range is 30/100=.3
Posted: July 30th, 2010 under US Stock Market.
Tags: Stock market, stock market close price range