Stock Market Today

At the 1929 high the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 380.33. By the time the crash hit bottom in 1932 the Average stood at 42.84. But you need to realize that the Dow Average was made of the the leading stocks. The average fall for the average stock was much much more. Many went bankrupt and of course the investors lost everything who invested in them. Heck, I doubt that anyone knows for sure how much money was actually lost during the crash directly from the crash. One thing you need to be aware of is that a dollar back then was not the same as a dollar today. A dollar then was worth about somewhere in the neighborhood of $50.00 today, mabe more. The most expensive hotel room in NYC then cost $5.00. What is it today, about $500 or $1000. Because of liberal margin requirements then, in the first week of the crash most speculators lost everything.

As for being wise to invest. I am in agreement with that statement. But one does have to be somewhat rational about investing. First of all part of a persons investment policy should be to have a cash reserve on hand for when the market does take one of its periodic 25% to 35% reevaluations. Secondly, when the market has a somewhat prolonged rise, that is a time to bank some of the profits–add to the cash reserves.

Overvaluation of stocks is when the average pe of the average stock rises greatly above the norm. I believe the average now of the S&P 500 is about 17. At times it has been above 25, and occasionally even higher. At other times it has been below 10. When it is below 10, stocks are cheap. When it is above 20 stocks are very expensive.