Globe FOREX: Sterling Hit By BOE Minutes, FOMC Meeting Looms
— Sterling at new eight-month low against dollar after downbeat BOE minutes
— Minutes raise prospect of additional quantitative easing
— Other major currencies trade in narrow range ahead of U.S. Federal Reservedecision
— Emerging industry currencies suffer as traders steer clear of riskier bets
By Jessica Mead
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Sterling sank to an eight-month low against the dollar inEuropean trading Wednesday after a downbeat set of minutes in the Bank ofEngland’s Monetary Policy Committee, in an otherwise quiet session ahead of aU.S. Federal Reserve policy statement.
Although Adam Posen remained the only MPC member to vote for further assetpurchases, the tone of the September minutes was exceedingly cautious. Theyshowed that the BOE came close to voting for more quantitative easing, or QE, asgrowth appeared set to become “materially weaker” than the bank had forecast asrecently as August.
Following the minutes, the pound fell 0.7% to be as low as $1.5615 against thedollar and neared a record low against the yen, trading down to become as low asY119.23. But by 1042 GMT, the pound had recouped some of its earlier losses andwas trading at $1.5663 and at Y119.55.
“The text was very dovish and suggests the chances of more QE in November atthe time of the Inflation Report are increasing. In fact, if the economicbackdrop doesn’t stop getting worse, the chances of them thinking about throwingthe kitchen sink at the economy are increasing,” stated Kit Juckes, seniorcurrency strategist at Societe Generale in London.
A weak set of public borrowing figures did little to help the pound. Public-sector net borrowing rose to GBP15.9 billion in August, above the GBP13 billionpredicted by economists.
Most other major currencies remained rangebound, however, as traders wereunwilling to place significant bets ahead of the U.S. Federal Open MarketCommittee’s interest rate announcement due at 1815 GMT.
There was also lingering uncertainty over Greece, with the Greek governmentcabinet contemplating another potential EUR6 billion in budget cuts to secure therelease of the country’s next bailout payment from international lenders.
Details of these extra measures could be disclosed later within the day, but theFOMC decision will likely dominate the U.S. trading session, with the marketexpecting some form of ‘Operation Twist’ whereby the Fed lengthens the averageduration of its Treasury portfolio.
The currency implications aren’t clear-cut. “I don’t think it will havemassive implications for the dollar in the way that actual QE would,” said AdamCole, chief currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets. “But the more active thepolicy, the more dollar negative it might be,” he stated.
The prevailing cautious tone weighed on emerging market currencies. The SouthAfrican rand fell sharply against the dollar while the euro notched up somechunky gains against the Hungarian forint.
At 1055 GMT, the euro was trading at $1.3661 against the dollar, compared with$1.3703 late Tuesday in New York, according to trading system EBS. The dollarwas at Y76.30 against the yen, compared with Y76.46, while the euro was atY104.22 compared with Y104.76. Meanwhile, the pound was trading at $1.5663against the dollar, compared with $1.5744 late Tuesday in New York.
The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket ofcurrencies, was at 75.298 compared with 77.110 late Tuesday in New York.
A summary of key levels for chart-watching technical strategists is below:
Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHFSpot 1023 GMT 1.3679 76.30 1.5671 0.89333 Day Trend Bearish Bearish Bearish BullishWeekly Trend Bearish Bearish Bearish Bullish200 day ma 1.4056 80.50 1.6103 0.87623rd Resistance 1.3794 76.86 1.5867 0.90192nd Resistance 1.3745 76.58 1.5840 0.90001st Resistance 1.3697 76.40 1.5726 0.8982Pivot* 1.3680 76.53 1.5716 0.88631st Help 1.3642 76.24 1.5615 0.88952nd Help 1.3646 76.11 1.5500 0.88753rd Support 1.3586 76.03 1.5485 0.8858Forex spot: GBP/JPYSpot 1023 GMT 119.593 Day Trend BearishWeekly Trend Bearish200 day ma 129.583rd Resistance 120.682nd Resistance 120.191st Resistance 119.97Pivot* 120.221st Help 118.912nd Support 116.063rd Assistance 115.00
-By Jessica Mead, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0) 20 7842 9256, jessica.mead@dowjones.com
(Dow Jones Technical Strategist Francis Bray contributed to this story.)
(End) Dow Jones Newswires 09-21-110715ET Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Posted: October 21st, 2011 under Market News.
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