Russian Economy Could Contract With $50 Oil Price, Says IMF
MOSCOW -(Dow Jones)- Russia would face an economic recession of up to twoyears, if oil costs were to fall to $50 per barrel, Odd Per Brekk, theInternational Monetary Fund’s representative in Moscow, said Wednesday.
On Tuesday, the IMF lowered its projection for Russian economic growth thisyear to four.3% from a previous forecast of four.8%, citing a worsened outlook for oilprices and continued capital outflow.
A continuation of Russia’s current economic policies and its failure todiversify its dependence on commodity exports “would amplify Russia’svulnerability to external shocks,” Brekk said at a briefing Wednesday.
“If oil costs fall to $50 per barrel in 2012 and stays there, Russia willhave a recession for a year or two,” Brekk added.
The Russian Urals crude oil benchmark was trading at $111.18 at 1301 GMT andhas been hovering above $100 a barrel given that February. But the IMF warned thatprices may slide, if the recent fear of a new global economic slowdownmaterializes, which in turn would hurt resource-rich economies like Russia.
-By Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen, Dow Jones Newswires, +7 495 232-9197;
jacob.pedersen@dowjones.com
(End) Dow Jones Newswires 09-21-110918ET Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Posted: October 21st, 2011 under Market News.
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